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Poland Oil and Gas Report Q4 2008 (Business Monitor International)
- Market: Energy and Utilities
- Report Title: Poland Oil and Gas Report Q4 2008
- View Report Summary: View Report Summary
- Report Type: Market Report
- Country: Poland
- Number of Pages: 99
Executive Summary .........7
SWOT Analysis.................9
Poland Political SWOT.......................................................... 9
Poland Economic SWOT........................................................ 9
Poland Business Environment SWOT .................................. 10
Poland Energy Market Overview ..........................................................11
Global Oil Market Overview ....................................................14
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................ 16
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................ 17
Oil Price Outlook ............18
OPEC Intransigence ................................................................. 18
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/08............................ 20
Revised Forecasts ..................................................................... 20
Table: Oil Price Forecasts................................................... 21
Regional Energy Market Overview ..........................................................22
Oil Supply And Demand............................................................ 22
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 23
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)..... 24
Oil: Downstream ...................................................................... 25
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d).......................................................................................................................... 25
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) .... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)........ 27
Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................... 28
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) ( 28
Business Environment Ranking ...................................................................29
Central/Eastern Europe Region........................................... 29
Composite Scores................................................................. 29
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.... 30
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratin 31
Upstream Scores.................................................................. 31
Downstream Scores ............................................................. 32
Poland Upstream Rating – Overview................................... 32
Poland Upstream Rating – Potential Returns ...................... 32
Poland Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns......... 32
Poland Downstream Rating – Overview.............................. 33
Poland Downstream Rating – Potential Returns ................. 33
Poland Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns .... 33
Business Environment ....................................................34
Legal Framework...................................................................... 34
Infrastructure............................................................................ 35
Labour Force............................................................................ 36
Foreign Investment Policy ........................................................ 37
Tax Regime ............................................................................... 37
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................39
Oil and Gas Reserves................................................................ 39
Oil Supply and Demand............................................................ 39
Gas Supply and Demand........................................................... 39
LNG.......................................................................................... 40
Refining and Oil Products Trade .............................................. 41
Revenues/Import Costs.............................................................. 41
Table: Poland Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts....... 42
Other Energy ............................................................................ 43
Table: Poland Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts.. 45
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario...................................... 45
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook ................................................. 45
Macroeconomic Outlook ..........................................................46
Table: Poland - Economic Activity ...................................... 48
Regional Case Study......49
Growth By Eni Means Necessary.............................................. 49
Eni Exploration & Development (E&D) Acreage End-2007 (sq km)................................................................................................................... 52
Competitive Landscape.....................................................57
Executive Summary................................................................... 57
Key Players – Poland Oil & Gas Sector .............................. 58
Overview/State Role.................................................................. 58
Key Upstream Players ......................................................... 60
Key Downstream Players..................................................... 60
Company Monitor...........61
PKN Orlen................................................................................ 61
Grupa Lotos.............................................................................. 65
Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG)............... 68
BP Poland................................................................................. 72
Shell Poland.............................................................................. 74
StatoilHydro – Summary...................................................... 76
MOL – Summary.................................................................. 76
ExxonMobil – Summary....................................................... 76
Neste Oil – Summary ........................................................... 76
FX Energy – Summary......................................................... 76
Aurelian Oil & Gas – Summary........................................... 77
Gaz System – Summary........................................................ 77
Operator Logistyczny Paliw P³ynnych (OLPP) – Summary. 77
Glossary of Terms..........79
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ......................................................80
Introduction .............................................................................. 80
Ratings Overview...................................................................... 80
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure ....................................................................................................................... 81
Indicators.................................................................................. 81
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology................................................................................................. 82
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ............................................................................................ 83
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ...............................................85
Global Oil Demand................................................................... 85
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) ............................................... 85
Global Oil Production (000b/d)........................................... 86
Global Oil Supply ..................................................................... 86
Global Gas Demand ................................................................. 87
Global Gas Demand (bcm) .................................................. 87
Global Gas Supply.................................................................... 87
Global Gas Production (bcm).............................................. 88
Regional Oil Demand ............................................................... 88
CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) ........................................... 89
Regional Oil Supply.................................................................. 89
CEE Oil Production (000b/d) .............................................. 90
Regional Refining Capacity ...................................................... 90
CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ................................... 91
Regional Gas Demand .............................................................. 91
CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) .............................................. 92
Regional Gas Supply................................................................. 92
CEE Gas Production (bcm) ................................................. 93
Poland Country Overview......................................................... 93
Poland Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts .......................... 94
Poland Other Energy – Long-Term Forecasts ..................... 95
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts .......................................... 95
BMI Forecast Modelling .....................................................97
How we generate our industry forecasts ................................... 97
Energy Industry ........................................................................ 98
Cross checks ............................................................................. 98
Sources ..................................................................................... 98
SWOT Analysis.................9
Poland Political SWOT.......................................................... 9
Poland Economic SWOT........................................................ 9
Poland Business Environment SWOT .................................. 10
Poland Energy Market Overview ..........................................................11
Global Oil Market Overview ....................................................14
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................ 16
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................ 17
Oil Price Outlook ............18
OPEC Intransigence ................................................................. 18
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/08............................ 20
Revised Forecasts ..................................................................... 20
Table: Oil Price Forecasts................................................... 21
Regional Energy Market Overview ..........................................................22
Oil Supply And Demand............................................................ 22
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 23
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)..... 24
Oil: Downstream ...................................................................... 25
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d).......................................................................................................................... 25
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) .... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)........ 27
Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................... 28
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) ( 28
Business Environment Ranking ...................................................................29
Central/Eastern Europe Region........................................... 29
Composite Scores................................................................. 29
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.... 30
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratin 31
Upstream Scores.................................................................. 31
Downstream Scores ............................................................. 32
Poland Upstream Rating – Overview................................... 32
Poland Upstream Rating – Potential Returns ...................... 32
Poland Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns......... 32
Poland Downstream Rating – Overview.............................. 33
Poland Downstream Rating – Potential Returns ................. 33
Poland Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns .... 33
Business Environment ....................................................34
Legal Framework...................................................................... 34
Infrastructure............................................................................ 35
Labour Force............................................................................ 36
Foreign Investment Policy ........................................................ 37
Tax Regime ............................................................................... 37
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................39
Oil and Gas Reserves................................................................ 39
Oil Supply and Demand............................................................ 39
Gas Supply and Demand........................................................... 39
LNG.......................................................................................... 40
Refining and Oil Products Trade .............................................. 41
Revenues/Import Costs.............................................................. 41
Table: Poland Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts....... 42
Other Energy ............................................................................ 43
Table: Poland Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts.. 45
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario...................................... 45
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook ................................................. 45
Macroeconomic Outlook ..........................................................46
Table: Poland - Economic Activity ...................................... 48
Regional Case Study......49
Growth By Eni Means Necessary.............................................. 49
Eni Exploration & Development (E&D) Acreage End-2007 (sq km)................................................................................................................... 52
Competitive Landscape.....................................................57
Executive Summary................................................................... 57
Key Players – Poland Oil & Gas Sector .............................. 58
Overview/State Role.................................................................. 58
Key Upstream Players ......................................................... 60
Key Downstream Players..................................................... 60
Company Monitor...........61
PKN Orlen................................................................................ 61
Grupa Lotos.............................................................................. 65
Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG)............... 68
BP Poland................................................................................. 72
Shell Poland.............................................................................. 74
StatoilHydro – Summary...................................................... 76
MOL – Summary.................................................................. 76
ExxonMobil – Summary....................................................... 76
Neste Oil – Summary ........................................................... 76
FX Energy – Summary......................................................... 76
Aurelian Oil & Gas – Summary........................................... 77
Gaz System – Summary........................................................ 77
Operator Logistyczny Paliw P³ynnych (OLPP) – Summary. 77
Glossary of Terms..........79
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ......................................................80
Introduction .............................................................................. 80
Ratings Overview...................................................................... 80
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure ....................................................................................................................... 81
Indicators.................................................................................. 81
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology................................................................................................. 82
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ............................................................................................ 83
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ...............................................85
Global Oil Demand................................................................... 85
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) ............................................... 85
Global Oil Production (000b/d)........................................... 86
Global Oil Supply ..................................................................... 86
Global Gas Demand ................................................................. 87
Global Gas Demand (bcm) .................................................. 87
Global Gas Supply.................................................................... 87
Global Gas Production (bcm).............................................. 88
Regional Oil Demand ............................................................... 88
CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) ........................................... 89
Regional Oil Supply.................................................................. 89
CEE Oil Production (000b/d) .............................................. 90
Regional Refining Capacity ...................................................... 90
CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ................................... 91
Regional Gas Demand .............................................................. 91
CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) .............................................. 92
Regional Gas Supply................................................................. 92
CEE Gas Production (bcm) ................................................. 93
Poland Country Overview......................................................... 93
Poland Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts .......................... 94
Poland Other Energy – Long-Term Forecasts ..................... 95
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts .......................................... 95
BMI Forecast Modelling .....................................................97
How we generate our industry forecasts ................................... 97
Energy Industry ........................................................................ 98
Cross checks ............................................................................. 98
Sources ..................................................................................... 98
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