Executive Summary 6

SWOT Analysis ......8

Saudi Arabia Political SWOT ... 8

Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT . 8

Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT 9

Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview 10

Global Oil Market Overview 13

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 14

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 15

Oil Price Outlook ..16

Waiting For A Correction ... 16

Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/08 . 17

Revised Forecasts ...... 17

Table: Oil Price Forecasts ...... 18

Regional Market Overview .19

Oil Supply And Demand ...... 19

Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) .. 20

Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 21

Oil: Downstream 22

Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .... 22

Gas Supply And Demand .... 23

Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) ..... 23

Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) . 24

Liquefied Natural Gas 25

Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) ...... 25

Business Environment Ranking ...26

Middle East Region 26

Composite Scores .. 26

Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating ...... 27

Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 28

Upstream Scores ... 28

Downstream Scores 29

Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Overview 29

Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns .... 29

Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns ..... 29

Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Overview ... 29

Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns . 30

Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Re 30

Business Environment ..31

Legal Framework 31

Infrastructure.. 32

Labour Force.. 33

Foreign Investment Policy .. 34

Tax Regime. 35

Industry Forecast Scenario 37

Oil and Gas Reserves . 37

Oil Supply and Demand ...... 37
Gas Supply and Demand ..... 38
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 39
Revenues/Import Costs . 40
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts ... 41
Other Energy .. 42
Table: Saudi Arabia Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts 43
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario .. 43
Long-term Oil & Gas Outlook ..... 43
Macroeconomic Outlook .44
Table: Economic Activity . 46
Regional Case Study .47
Competitive Landscape .50
Table: Key Players – Saudi Oil & Gas Sector ... 51
Overview/State Role ... 51
Table: Key Upstream Players . 53
Table: Key Downstream Players ..... 53
Company Monitor ..54
Saudi Aramco . 54
Shell Saudi Arabia ..... 59
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia ... 62
Chevron ... 64
Total – Summary ... 66
Eni – Summary ...... 66
ConocoPhillips – Summary ..... 66
BP – Summary ...... 66
RepsolYPF – Summary .. 67
Lukoil – Summary . 67
Sinopec – Summary . 67
Sumitomo – Summary .... 67
Glossary of Terms ..68
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology .69
Introduction 69
Ratings Overview 69
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 70
Indicators . 71
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 71
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology .. 72
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-term forecasts .73
Global Oil Demand 73
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) .. 73
Global Oil Production (000b/d) 74
Global Oil Supply ...... 74
Global Gas Demand .. 75
Global Gas Demand (bcm) ..... 75
Global Gas Supply ..... 75
Global Gas Production (bcm) . 76
Regional Oil Demand 77
Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) .... 77
Regional Oil Supply ... 78
Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) . 78 Regional Refining Capacity 79 Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ...... 79 Regional Gas Demand . 80 Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) 80 Regional Gas Supply .. 81 Middle East Gas Production (bcm) .. 81 Saudi Arabia Country Overview .. 81 Saudi Arabia Energy Outlook ...... 82 Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas – Long-term Forecasts 82 Saudi Arabia Other Energy – Long-term Forecasts .... 83 Methodology & Risks To Forecasts ...... 84 BMI Forecast Modelling .85 How we generate our industry forecasts . 85 Energy Industry 86 Cross checks ... 86 Sources .... 86