Table of Contents
The Future of TV
Executive summary 10
The evolving broadcast landscape 10
The rise of digital TV 11
The future of HDTV 12
The emergence of IPTV 13
Broadcast TV to mobile 14
Chapter 1 The evolving broadcast landscape 18
Summary 18
Media in the 21st Century 19
New business models 21
Broadband adoption and its impact on TV 23
Competitive landscape 25
The impact of M&A on the media sector 25
Non-traditional competitors 26
Technology landscape 28
Digital TV 28
Video on demand (VOD) 29
High-definition TV 31
Mobile TV 31
Mobile TV subscriber forecast 33
The future of advertising in a digital world 35
Chapter 2 The rise of digital TV 38
Summary 38
Market overview 39
Triple-play bundling 40
Investment in new channels 41
Enhanced content services 42
Video on demand 42
HDTV content 43
Operational efficiencies 43
Mobile TV 45
Market sizing 45
Europe vs US comparison 45
By platform 48
Europe 48
United States 49
Conclusions 50
Europe 51
United States 53
Chapter 3 The future of HDTV 56
Summary 56
HDTV market overview 57
HDTV technology standards 58
Compression technology 61
Consumer electronics equipment 62
HD televisions 62
Commercial market vs consumer market 64
HD set-top boxes 65
Market sizing 66
General 66
The United States 68
US satellite operators 69
US pricing 69
Western Europe 69
Conclusions 73
Chapter 4 The emergence of IPTV 76
Summary 76
IPTV market overview 77
What is IPTV? 77
Broad range of services 79
IPTV technology overview 81
Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer 82
Consumer equipment 82
Middleware 83
Multicasting and unicasting 83
Market drivers and inhibitors 85
Drivers 85
Improved compression and reduced hardware costs 85
Hardware costs are falling 89
Increasing uptake of broadband 89
Increasing competition between platforms 90
Boosting ARPU and reducing churn 91
Inhibitors 92
IPTV is relatively new and untested 92
Deployment costs 93
Lack of content relationships 95
Competing platforms 96
Market sizing 97
Conclusions 99
Chapter 5 Broadcast TV to mobile 102
Summary 102
What is mobile broadcast TV? 103
The broadcast TV to mobile value chain 105
Market drivers and inhibitors 106
Drivers 106
Consumer demand 106
Mobile phone penetration 107
Single, multifunctional devices 108
New revenue stream 109
Inhibitors 110
Competition from other content services 110
Consumer education 111
Technical challenges 112
Handset capabilities 113
Content security 115
Mobile TV content 116
Technology standards 117
DMB vs DVB-H vs MediaFLO 117
DVB-H 118
Digital Multimedia Broadcasting (DMB) 119
MediaFLO 121
ISDB-T 123
Summary 123
Market sizing 124
Global 124
North America 126
Europe 128
By country 129
Asia Pacific 130
Recommendations 132
Pricing 132
Option 1: flat fee for unlimited TV access 132
Option 2: pay-per-view 133
Option 3: charge per minute 133
Option 4: two-tier pricing model 133
Business model 134
Handsets 134
Audience 135
Lifestyle target 135
Demographic targeting 136
Conclusions 137
Index 139
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Digital TV market comparison. 2005-2010 28
Figure 1.2: Simplified broadcast TV to mobile value chain 32
Figure 1.3: Mobile Broadcast TV subscriber forecasts, 2006 – 2012 34
Figure 2.4: Proportion of IT budget invested into new distribution channels, 2007 41
Figure 2.5: Broadcasters IT budget priorities, 2007 44
Figure 2.6: Digital TV uptake comparison: Europe vs. the US, 2005-2010 46
Figure 2.7: Digital TV market development comparison, 2005-2010 47
Figure 2.8: Digital TV households in Europe by platform, 2005-2010 48
Figure 2.9: Digital TV households in the US by platform, 2005-2010 49
Figure 3.10: High definition households in Europe and the US, 2006-2010 66
Figure 3.11: High definition households in the US, 2006 – 2012 68
Figure 3.12: HD households in Western Europe with CAGR, 2012 70
Figure 3.13: European HDTV market development comparison, 2008 71
Figure 4.14: Top-level IPTV systems architecture 81
Figure 4.15: Compression technology developments have boosted the potential of IPTV services 87
Figure 4.16: Cable operators and telcos are providing an increasingly similar range of services 90
Figure 4.17: Offering video services can substantially boost ARPU for telcos 92
Figure 4.18: Incremental costs per IPTV subscriber ($) 93
Figure 4.19: IPTV uptake comparison: Europe vs. the US, 2005-2010 98
Figure 5.20: Simplified model for mobile video consumption 103
Figure 5.21: Simplified broadcast TV to mobile value chain 106
Figure 5.22: Mobile subscribers including pre-pay, 2006-2012 107
Figure 5.23: Expandable screen on a mobile phone 115
Figure 5.24: Regional comparison of mobile broadcast TV subscribers, 2006 – 2012 125
Figure 5.25: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in North America, 2006 – 2012 127
Figure 5.26: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Europe, 2006 – 2012 128
Figure 5.27: European mobile broadcast subscribers by country, 2012 129
Figure 5.28: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Asia-Pac, 2006 – 2012 130
Figure 5.29: Major Asia-Pac markets comparison for mobile broadcast TV subscribers , 2006 –
2012 131
Figure 5.30: Mobile TV usage pattern 135
Figure 5.31: Finnish trial sample distribution by age group 137
List of Tables
Table 1.1: European broadband penetration by household, 2006-2010 24
Table 2.2: Digital TV uptake comparison: Europe vs. the US, 2005-2010 46
Table 2.3: Digital TV market development comparison, 2005-2010 47
Table 2.4: Digital TV households in Europe by platform, 2005-2010 48
Table 2.5: Digital TV households in the US by platform, 2005-2010 50
Table 3.6: The most common HDTV display formats 60
Table 5.7: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in North America, 2006-2012 127
Table 5.8: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers in Europe, 2006 – 2012 129
Table 5.9: Mobile broadcast TV subscribers Asia-Pac, 2006 – 2012 131