Table of Contents
Anti-infectives Market Outlook to 2011
Executive Summary 14
Patient potential 14
Global market analysis 15
Pipeline analysis 16
Competitive landscape 17
Chapter 1 Epidemiology of Anti-infectives market 20
Summary 20
Introduction 21
Bacterial infections 22
Overview 22
Respiratory tract infections 22
Urinary tract infections 23
Skin and skin structure infections 23
Diagnosis, treatment and management 25
Respiratory tract infections 25
Urinary tract infections 26
Skin and skin structure infections 26
Epidemiology 27
Respiratory tract infections 27
Urinary tract infections 28
Skin and skin structure infections 30
Forecast epidemiology 30
Respiratory tract infections 31
Urinary tract infections 33
Skin and skin structure infections 35
Viral infections 36
Hepatitis 36
Overview 36
Diagnosis, treatment and management 37
Epidemiology 39
Forecast epidemiology 40
Influenza 43
Overview 43
Diagnosis, treatment and management 44
Epidemiology 46
Forecast epidemiology 46
Herpes 47
Overview 47
Diagnosis, treatment and management 49
Epidemiology 51
Forecast epidemiology 53
Vaccines 55
Tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis 55
Overview 55
Diagnosis, treatment and management 56
Epidemiology 57
Mumps, measles and rubella 58
Overview 58
Diagnosis, treatment and management 59
Epidemiology 60
Polio 61
Overview 61
Diagnosis, treatment and management 62
Epidemiology 63
Fungal infections 63
Overview 63
Diagnosis, treatment and management 64
Epidemiology 65
Forecast epidemiology 66
Chapter 2 Global market analysis 70
Summary 70
Introduction 71
Market analysis by country 72
Licensing trends 73
Market analysis by drug class 74
Leading brands dynamics 77
Key events in the anti-infectives market 81
Safety warning issued for Sanofi-Aventis’ Ketek (telithromycin) 81
Serious adverse effects reported with the use of penicillins 81
Launch of new innovative class of drugs 81
Wyeth’s Prevnar gains from being the first vaccine to reach blockbuster status
in 2005 82
Increased competition within the hepatitis B market 82
Arrival of generic competition to market leading products in the antiinfectives’
market 83
Anti-virals 84
Leading brands of anti-viral treatments 85
Key brands analysis 87
Anti-Virals sales forecasts to 2011 95
Vaccines 96
Key brands analysis 98
Vaccines sales forecasts to 2011 106
Anti-bacterials 107
Market analysis by drug class 107
Leading brands of anti-bacterial treatments 109
Macrolides 112
Key brands analysis 113
Beta-lactams 119
Key brands analysis 120
Other anti-biotics 125
Key brand analysis 126
Penicillins 134
Market dynamics 134
Key brands analysis 136
Cephalosporins market analysis 143
Market dynamics 143
Key brands analysis 144
Tetracyclines market analysis 149
Market dynamics 149
Key brands analysis 150
Fluroquinolones 152
Market dynamics 152
Key brands analysis 153
Anti-bacterials sales forecasts to 2011 160
Anti-fungals 163
Market analysis by drug class 163
Leading brands of the anti-fungal market 164
Market dynamics 164
Key brands analysis 167
Anti-fungals sales forecasts to 2011 176
Total anti-infective market sales forecasts to 2011 177
Chapter 3 Pipeline analysis 180
Summary 180
Introduction 181
Key trends in R&D 181
The therapeutic area pipeline 183
Leading drugs in development 185
Profiles of key pipeline products 186
Phase III compounds 186
Albuferon (albinterferon alpha 2b) 186
Maribavir 188
Ceftobiprole 189
Drugs in registration 191
Arbelic (telavancin) 191
Zeven (dalbavancin) 193
Mycograb (efungumab) 195
Recently marketed drugs 197
Tygacil (tigecycline) 197
Doripenem 200
Baraclude (entecavir) 201
Tyzeka/Sebivo (telbivudine) 203
Noxafil (posaconazole) 205
Eraxis (anidulafungin) 207
Pipeline forecasts 209
Factors affecting forecasts 209
Anti-infectives pipeline forecasts 209
Chapter 4 Competitive landscape 212
Summary 212
Introduction 213
Company market shares 213
GlaxoSmithKline 218
Overview 218
Sales focus by drug class 218
Marketed product portfolio 219
R&D pipeline analysis 221
Strategic and growth analysis 222
Drivers of growth 222
Resistors of growth 222
Pfizer 223
Overview 223
Sales focus by drug class 224
Marketed product portfolio 225
R&D pipeline analysis 226
Strategic and growth analysis 227
Drivers of growth 227
Resistors of growth 227
Novartis 228
Overview 228
Sales focus by drug class 229
Marketed product portfolio 230
R&D pipeline analysis 231
Strategic and growth analysis 232
Drivers of growth 232
Resistors of growth 233
Sanofi-Aventis 233
Overview 233
Sales focus by drug class 234
Marketed product portfolio 235
R&D pipeline analysis 236
Strategic and growth analysis 237
Drivers of growth 237
Resistors of growth 237
Merck 238
Overview 238
Sales focus by drug class 238
Marketed product portfolio 239
R&D pipeline analysis 240
Strategic and growth analysis 241
Drivers of growth 241
Resistors of growth 241
Johnson & Johnson 242
Overview 242
Sales focus by drug class 242
Marketed product portfolio 243
R&D pipeline analysis 244
Strategic and growth analysis 245
Drivers of growth 245
Resistors of growth 245
Roche 246
Overview 246
Sales focus by drug class 246
Marketed product portfolio 247
R&D pipeline analysis 248
Strategic and growth analysis 249
Drivers of growth 249
Resistors of growth 249
Wyeth 249
Overview 249
Sales focus by drug class 250
Marketed product portfolio 251
R&D pipeline analysis 252
Strategic and growth analysis 252
Drivers of growth 252
Resistors of growth 253
Abbott 253
Overview 253
Sales focus by drug class 254
Marketed product portfolio 255
R&D pipeline analysis 256
Strategic and growth analysis 257
Drivers of growth 257
Resistors of growth 257
Schering-Plough 258
Overview 258
Sales focus by drug class 258
Marketed product portfolio 259
R&D pipeline analysis 260
Strategic and growth analysis 261
Drivers of growth 261
Resistors of growth 262
Chapter 5 Appendix 264
IMS data 264
J1 Systemic antibiotics 264
J2 systemic agents for fungal infections 264
J3 systemic sulphonamides 264
J5 Antivirals for systemic use 264
J7 Vaccines 264
Index 265

List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Global anti-infectives market share by geography, 2005 72
Figure 2.2: Sales of types of anti-infectives brands, 2004-5 73
Figure 2.3: Competitive dynamics of the drug classes in the global anti-infectives market, 2004-5 76
Figure 2.4: Competitive dynamics of the drug classes in the global anti-infectives market, 2004-5 80
Figure 2.5: Competitive dynamics of the leading anti-viral treatments in the global anti-infectives market, 2004-5 86
Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of the leading vaccines in the global anti-infectives market, 2004-5 97
Figure 2.7: Competitive dynamics of the global anti-bacterial market by drug class, 2005 108
Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the ten leading brands in the anti-bacterial drug class, 2005 111
Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of the ten leading brands in the anti-fungal drug class, 2005 166
Figure 3.10: Prevailing R&D approaches, 2006 181
Figure 3.11: The anti-infectives pipeline by indication and stage of development, 2006 183
Figure 3.12: Leading recently launched products and late-stage R&D in the anti-infectives market, 2005 185
Figure 4.13: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global anti-infectives market, 2005 217
Figure 4.14: GSK’s anti-infectives sales, 2005 218
Figure 4.15: Pfizer’s anti-infectives sales, 2005 224
Figure 4.16: Novartis’ anti-infectives sales, 2005 229
Figure 4.17: Sanofi-Aventis’ anti-infectives sales, 2005 234
Figure 4.18: Merck’s anti-infectives sales, 2005 238
Figure 4.19: Johnson & Johnson anti-infectives sales, 2005 242
Figure 4.20: Roche’s anti-infectives sales, 2005 246
Figure 4.21: Wyeth’s anti-infectives sales, 2005 250
Figure 4.22: Abbott’s anti-infectives sales, 2005 254
Figure 4.23: Schering-Plough’s anti-infectives sales, 2005 258
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Estimated prevalence of infective diseases across seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005 21
Table 1.2: Estimated incidence of community acquired pneumonia infections across seven major markets, 2005 27
Table 1.3: Estimated incidence of uRTIs caused by streptococcus infection across seven major markets, 2005 28
Table 1.4: Estimated incidence of community acquired urinary tract infections across seven major markets, 2005 29
Table 1.5: Estimated incidence of bacterial skin and skin structure infections across seven major markets, 2005 30
Table 1.6: Forecast epidemiology of CAP across the seven major markets, 2005-11 31
Table 1.7: Forecast epidemiology of uRTIs caused by streptococcus infection across the seven major markets, 2005-11 32
Table 1.8: Forecast epidemiology of urinary tract infections across the seven major markets, 2005-11 33
Table 1.9: Forecast epidemiology of skin and skin structure infections across the seven major
markets, 2005-11 35
Table 1.10: Estimated prevalence of HBV and HCV across the seven major markets, 2005 39
Table 1.11: Forecast epidemiology of HBV and HCV across the seven major markets, 2005-11 41
Table 1.12: Estimated prevalence of influenza across the seven major markets, 2005 46
Table 1.13: Estimated seroprevalence of HSV-1 and HSV-2 across the seven major markets, 2005
51
Table 1.14: Forecast seroprevalence of HSV-1 and HSV-2 across the seven major markets, 2005-
11 53
Table 1.15: Estimated vaccine coverage and incidence of DPT across the seven major markets,
2005 57
Table 1.16: Estimated vaccine coverage and incidence of MMR across the seven major markets,
2005 60
Table 1.17: Estimated vaccine coverage and incidence of polio across the seven major markets,
2005 63
Table 1.18: Estimated incidence of systemic fungal infections in across seven major markets, 2005
65
Table 1.19: Forecast epidemiology of systemic fungal infections across the seven major markets,
2005-11 66
Table 2.20: Breakdown of the global Anti-infective market by drug class, 2001-05 74
Table 2.21: Leading brands in the global Anti-infectives market, 2004–05 77
Table 2.22: Breakdown of the global anti-viral market by drug class, 2001-05 84
Table 2.23: Leading anti-virals in the global anti-infectives market, 85
Table 2.24: Anti-virals sales forecast, 2005-11 95
Table 2.25: Leading vaccines in the global anti-infectives market, 96
Table 2.26: Vaccines sales forecast, 2005-11 106
Table 2.27: Breakdown of the global anti-bacterial market by drug class, 2001-05 107
Table 2.28: Leading Anti-bacterials in the global anti-infectives market, 109
Table 2.29: Leading macrolides in the global anti-infectives market, 112
Table 2.30: Overview of Pfizer’s Zithromax franchise 113
Table 2.31: Leading ‘other’ beta-lactams in the global anti-infectives market, 119
Table 2.32: Leading ‘other’ anti-biotics in the global anti-infectives market, 125
Table 2.33: Leading penicillins in the global anti-infectives market, 134
Table 2.34: Leading cephalosporin brands in the global anti-bacterials market, 2004–05 143
Table 2.35: Leading tetracycline brands in the global anti-bacterials market, 2004–05 149
Table 2.36: Leading fluoroquinolones brands in the global anti-infectives market, 2004–5 152
Table 2.37: Anti-bacterials’ sales forecast, 2005-11 160
Table 2.38: Anti-bacterials’ sales forecast, 2005-11 161
Table 2.39: Anti-bacterials’ sales forecast, 2005-11 162
Table 2.40: The global anti-fungal market by drug class, 2001-05 163
Table 2.41: Leading anti-fungals brands in the global anti-infectives market, 2004–5 164
Table 2.42: Anti-fungal sales forecast, 2005-11 176
Table 2.43: Therapeutic sales forecasts by drug class, 2005-11 177
Table 3.44: Anti-infectives pipeline forecasts, 2006-11 209
Table 4.45: Leading players in the global anti-infectives market, 2004-5 213
Table 4.46: GSK’s anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 219
Table 4.47: GSK’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 221
Table 4.48: Pfizer’s anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 225
Table 4.49: Pfizer’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 226
Table 4.50: Novartis’ anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 230
Table 4.51: Novartis’ anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 231
Table 4.52: Sanofi-Aventis’ anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 235
Table 4.53: Sanofi-Aventis anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 236
Table 4.54: Merck’s anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 239
Table 4.55: Merck’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 240
Table 4.56: Johnson & Johnson anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 243
Table 4.57: Johnson & Johnson’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 244
Table 4.58: Roche’s anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 247
Table 4.59: Roche’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 248
Table 4.60: Wyeth’s anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 251
Table 4.61: Wyeth’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 252
Table 4.62: Abbott’s anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 255
Table 4.63: Abbott’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 256
Table 4.64: Schering-Plough’s anti-infectives product portfolio, 2004-5 259
Table 4.65: Schering-Plough’s anti-infectives R&D product pipeline, 2006 260