Executive Summary 10
Patient potential 10
Global market analysis 11
Pipeline analysis 12
Competitive landscape 13
Chapter 1 Patient Potential 16
Summary 16
Introduction 17
HIV/AIDS 17
Overview 17
Diagnosis, treatment and management 18
Epidemiology 24
The global picture of HIV/AIDS 24
The seven major markets 27
Forecast epidemiology 30
The seven major markets 30
Emerging markets 32
Chapter 2 Global HIV market analysis 34
Summary 34
Introduction 35
Market analysis by country 35
Licensing trends 38
Market analysis by drug class 39
Key events in the global HIV market 42
Combivir loses blockbuster status 42
FDA approves the first once-daily triple-combination pill for the treatment of
HIV 42
Fuzeon, the first-in-class fusion inhibitor enters the HIV market, offering an
additional treatment option for patients requiring salvage therapy 42
Approval of maraviroc 43
Leading brand dynamics 44
Leading brands of HIV treatments 44
Market dynamics of leading nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 46
Key NRTI brands 49
Market dynamics of leading protease inhibitors 53
Key protease inhibitor brands analysis 56
Market dynamics of non nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 63
Key NNRTI brands analysis 66
HIV therapeutic market sales forecasts to 2011 70
Chapter 3 Pipeline analysis 74
Summary 74
Introduction 75
Key trends in R&D 75
The HIV therapeutic area pipeline 76
Leading drugs in development 77
Classification of pipeline products 78
Entry inhibitors 78
Maturation inhibitors 78
Integration inhibitors 78
New agents from existing classes 78
Profiles of key pipeline products 79
Phase II compounds 79
Bevirimat (PA-457) 79
Phase III compounds 80
etravirine (TMC-125) 80
Isentress (raltegravir) 82
Recently marketed drugs/drugs in registration 83
Maraviroc 83
Prezista (darunavir) 86
Atripla (efavirenz/ tenofovir/emtricitabine) 88
Fuzeon (enfuviritide) 89
Pipeline forecasts 91
Factors affecting forecasts 91
HIV pipeline forecasts 91
Chapter 4 Competitive landscape 94
Summary 94
Introduction 95
Company market shares 95
GlaxoSmithKline 97
Overview 97
Sales focus by drug class 98
Marketed product portfolio 99
R&D pipeline analysis 100
Strategic and growth analysis 101
Drivers of growth 101
Resistors of growth 101
Gilead 101
Overview 101
Sales focus by drug class 102
Marketed product portfolio 103
R&D pipeline analysis 104
Strategic and growth analysis 104
Drivers of growth 104
Resistors of growth 105
Bristol-Myers Squibb 105
Overview 105
Sales focus by drug class 106
Marketed product portfolio 107
R&D pipeline analysis 108
Strategic and growth analysis 108
Drivers of growth 108
Resistors of growth 109
Abbott 109
Overview 109
Sales focus by drug class 110
Marketed product portfolio 111
R&D pipeline analysis 111
Strategic and growth analysis 112
Drivers of growth 112
Resistors of growth 112
Roche 112
Overview 112
Sales focus by drug class 113
Marketed product portfolio 114
R&D pipeline analysis 115
Strategic and growth analysis 115
Drivers of growth 115
Resistors of growth 116
Boehringer Ingelheim 116
Overview 116
Sales focus by drug class 117
Marketed product portfolio 118
R&D pipeline analysis 119
Strategic and growth analysis 119
Drivers of growth 119
Resistors of growth 120
Pfizer 120
Overview 120
Sales focus by drug class 121
Marketed product portfolio 122
R&D pipeline analysis 123
Strategic and growth analysis 124
Drivers of growth 124
Resistors of growth 124
Merck 124
Overview 124
Sales focus by drug class 125
Marketed product portfolio 126
R&D pipeline analysis 127
Strategic and growth analysis 128
Drivers of growth 128
Resistors of growth 128
Barr 129
Overview 129
Marketed product portfolio 129
R&D pipeline analysis 130
Strategic and growth analysis 130
Drivers of growth 130
Resistors of growth 130
Kohl Medical AG 130
Overview 130
Sales focus by drug class 131
Marketed product portfolio 132
R&D pipeline analysis 133
Strategic and growth analysis 133
Drivers of growth 133
Resistors of growth 133
Chapter 5 Appendix 136
Regional country groupings (UNAIDS) 136
IMS data 140
J5C HIV 140
Index 141
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: The HIV lifecycle 18
Figure 1.2: Comparison of HIV treatment regimens 21
Figure 1.3: Drivers of switching from first- to second-line ARV treatment regimens 22
Figure 1.4: Estimated number of people living with HIV globally, 2005 24
Figure 1.5: Unmet need for ARV therapy among adults in developing and transitional countries,
2005 26
Figure 1.6 HIV patient segmentation across the seven major markets, 2005 29
Figure 2.7: Global HIV/AIDS market share by geography, 2006 36
Figure 2.8: Sales of types of HIV/AIDS brands, 2005-06 38
Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of the global HIV/AIDS market by drug class, 2006 41
Figure 2.10: Competitive dynamics of the leading treatments in the global HIV market, 2005-6 46
Figure 2.11: Competitive dynamics of the leading NRTI brands in the global HIV market, 2005-6
48
Figure 2.12: Competitive dynamics of the leading protease inhibitor brands in the global HIV
market, 2005-06 56
Figure 2.13: Competitive dynamics of the leading NRTI brands in the global HIV market, 2005-06
66
Figure 3.14: Prevailing R&D approaches, 2006 75
Figure 3.15: The HIV pipeline by indication and stage of development, 2006 76
Figure 3.16: Leading recently launched products and late-stage R&D compounds indicated for the
treatment of HIV, 2006 77
Figure 4.17: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global HIV market, 2006 97
Figure 4.18: GSK’s HIV sales, 2006 98
Figure 4.19: Gilead’s HIV sales, 2006 102
Figure 4.20: BMS’ HIV sales, 2006 106
Figure 4.21: Abbott’s HIV sales, 2006 110
Figure 4.22: Roche’s HIV sales, 2006 113
Figure 4.23: Boehringer Ingelheim’s HIV sales, 2006 117
Figure 4.24: Pfizer’s HIV sales, 2006 121
Figure 4.25: Merck’s HIV sales, 2006 125
Figure 4.26: Kohl’s HIV sales, 2006 131
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Estimated prevalence of HIV/AIDS across the seven major markets, 2005 27
Table 1.2: Forecast epidemiology of HIV/AIDS across the seven major markets, 2005-11 31
Table 2.3: Breakdown of the global HIV market by drug class, 2002-06 39
Table 2.4: Leading treatments in the global HIV market, 44
Table 2.5: Leading NRTI products in the global HIV market, 2005–06 47
Table 2.6: Leading protease inhibitor products in the global HIV market, 2005–06 54
Table 2.7: Leading NNRTI products in the global HIV market, 2005–06 64
Table 2.8: HIV treatment sales forecast, 2006-12 70
Table 3.9: HIV pipeline forecasts, 2006-12 91
Table 4.10: Leading players in the global HIV market, 2005-06 95
Table 4.11: GSK’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 99
Table 4.12: GSK’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006 100
Table 4.13: Gilead’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 103
Table 4.14: Gilead’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006 104
Table 4.15: BMS’ HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 107
Table 4.16: BMS’ HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006 108
Table 4.17: Abbott’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 111
Table 4.18: Roche’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 114
Table 4.19: Roche’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006 115
Table 4.20: Boehringer Ingelheim’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 118
Table 4.21: Boehringer Ingelheim’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006 119
Table 4.22: Pfizer’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 122
Table 4.23: Pfizer’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006 123
Table 4.24: Merck’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 126
Table 4.25: Merck’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006 127
Table 4.26: Barr’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 129
Table 4.27: Kohl’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06 132