Executive Summary .........7
Business Environment ...............................................8
Latin America Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings ..... 8
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q4 2008 .................................................................................................... 12
Venezuela’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating ........ 12
Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings.......... 13
SWOT Analysis ......................................................................... 14
Food And Drink ................................................................... 14
Venezuela Food And Drink Industry SWOT......................... 14
Mass Grocery Retail ............................................................ 15
Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT.................. 15
Macroeconomic Outlook........................................................... 16
Table: Venezuela – Economic Activity................................. 18
Food.................................19
Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................... 19
Total Food Consumption ..................................................... 19
Table: Venezuela Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts ................................................................................................ 20
Confectionery....................................................................... 20
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts.......................................................................................................... 21
Industry Developments ........................................................ 22
Market Overview ...................................................................... 24
Overview Of Sector.............................................................. 24
Prepared Food / Canned Food ............................................ 24
Dairy.................................................................................... 25
Meat..................................................................................... 26
Seafood ................................................................................ 26
Drink ................................27
Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................... 27
Hot Drinks ........................................................................... 27
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ............................................................................................................................. 27
Alcoholic Drinks .................................................................. 27
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts....................................................................................................... 29
Soft Drinks ........................................................................... 29
Soft Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ........ 30
Industry Developments.............................................................. 30
Market Overview ...................................................................... 30
Alcoholic Drinks .................................................................. 30
Soft Drinks ........................................................................... 31
Agriculture At A Glance.............................................32
Table: Venezuela Dairy Industry Data (‘000 Tonnes, Unless Stated).................................................................................................................. 32
Table: Venezuela Organic Agricultural Data, 2006 ............ 32
Table: Venezuela Rural/Urban Population Breakdown....... 32
Agricultural Commodity Price............................................. 33
Mass Grocery Retail.......34
Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................... 34
Table: Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales By Format (US$bn) – Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................ 35
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type – 2007 & 2017......................................................................................................................... 35
Industry Developments.............................................................. 36
Market Overview ...................................................................... 37
Table: Structure Of Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets....................................................................... 39
Table: Structure Of Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (US$bn) ...................................................................... 39
Competitive Landscape.............................................40
Key Players............................................................................... 40
Food And Drink ................................................................... 40
Table: Key Players in Venezuela's Food & Drink Sector..... 40
Mass Grocery Retail ............................................................ 41
Table: Key Players In Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2007 ................................................................................................................ 41
Company Analysis..................................................................... 42
Food .................................................................................... 42
Alimentos Heinz CA............................................................. 42
Cargill de Venezuela............................................................ 43
Empresas Polar ................................................................... 44
Drink.................................................................................... 45
Coca-Cola FEMSA .............................................................. 45
Pernod Ricard Venezuela .................................................... 46
Mass Grocery Retail ............................................................ 47
Mercal CA ........................................................................... 47
Makro Venezuela ................................................................. 48
Recession Scenario .................................................49
Global Scenario........................................................................ 49
Table: World GDP Growth.................................................. 49
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth And Private Consumption Growth ................................................................................................ 50
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth............................................. 51
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth ....................... 52
Table: China GDP Growth.................................................. 53
Table: Mexico GDP Growth................................................ 53
Table: Africa GDP Growth.................................................. 54
Latin America Food & Drink Scenario..................................... 55
Deep US Recession: What Would Be The Impact For Latin America's Food And Drink Industries? .................................................................. 55
Table: Impact Of Deep US Recession On Total Food Consumption In Latin America - Cumulative Difference (US$bn) ................................... 55
Table: Impact Of Deep US Recession On Total Food Consumption In Latin America – Cumulative Difference (%).......................................... 56
Appendix .........................59
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings ..............................................................59
Ratings Methodology ................................................................ 59
Ratings Overview...................................................................... 59
Ratings System..................................................................... 59
Indicators............................................................................. 59
Limits Of Potential Returns.................................................. 60
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns ........................... 61
Weighting............................................................................. 62
Weighting............................................................................. 62
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary ...............................................................63
Food & Drink ........................................................................... 63
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................. 63
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing ....................................................................65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................... 65
Sourcing.................................................................................... 66