Executive Summary 7

SWOT Analysis .9

Vietnam Political SWOT .. 9

Vietnam Economics SWOT 9

Vietnam Business Environment SWOT ...... 10

Vietnam Energy Market Overview 11

Global Oil Market Overview 13

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 14

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 15

Oil Price Outlook ...16

Waiting For A Correction ... 16

Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/08 . 17

Revised Forecasts ...... 17

Table: Oil Price Forecasts ...... 18

Regional Energy Market Overview 19

Oil Supply And Demand ...... 19

Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) .. 20

Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 21

Oil: Downstream 22

Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .... 22

Gas Supply And Demand .... 23

Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) ..... 23

Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 24

Liquefied Natural Gas 25

Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) ...... 25

Business Environment Ranking 26

Asia Pacific Region 26

Composite Scores .. 26

Upstream Scores ... 27

Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.... 27

Downstream Scores 28

Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratin 28

Vietnam Upstream Rating – Overview ...... 29

Vietnam Upstream Rating – Potential Returns .. 29

Vietnam Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns ...... 29

Vietnam Downstream Rating – Overview . 29

Vietnam Downstream Rating – Potential Returns 30

Vietnam Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns . 30

Business Environment ..31

Legal Framework 31

Infrastructure.. 33

Labour Force.. 33

Foreign Investment Policy ...... 35

Tax Regime 37

Industry Forecast Scenario 38

Oil And Gas Reserves 38

Oil Supply And Demand ...... 38
Gas Supply And Demand .... 40
Refining/Oil Products Trade . 41
Revenues/Import Costs . 42
Table: Vietnam Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 43
Other Energy .. 44
Table: Vietnam Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 45
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario ... 45
Macroeconomic Outlook .46
Table: Vietnam Economic Activity ... 48
Regional Case Study ......49
Gazprom In The Asia Pacific Region . 49
Competitive Landscape .52
Executive Summary 52
Table: Key Players – Vietnam Oil & Gas Sector . 53
Overview/State Role ... 53
Table: Key Upstream Players . 54
Table: Key Downstream Players ..... 54
Company Monitor ..55
PetroVietnam.. 55
BP Vietnam. 59
Petronas Vietnam 61
Zarubezhneft ... 64
ConocoPhillips – Summary ..... 67
Mitsubishi – Summary ... 67
KNOC – Summary 67
Chevron – Summary 68
Premier Oil – Summary . 68
Soco International – Summary 69
Glossary Of Terms 71
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 72
Introduction 72
Ratings Overview 72
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 73
Indicators . 74
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 74
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology .. 75
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-term Forecasts .77
Global Oil Demand 77
Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) 77
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 78
Global Oil Supply ...... 78
Global Gas Demand .. 79
Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) ... 79
Global Gas Supply ..... 79
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) . 80
Regional Oil Demand 80
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) .. 81
Regional Oil Supply ... 81
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 82
Regional Refining Capacity 82 Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .... 83 Regional Gas Demand . 83 Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) ..... 84 Regional Gas Supply .. 84 Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 85 Vietnam Country Overview . 85 BMI Forecast Modelling .86 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .... 86 Energy Industry 87 Cross Checks .. 87 Sources .... 87